My Thoughts on John Kerry’s current position and why he may actually win in November

Mac has already (and successfully) covered the current poll positions of the seven Democrats.

This is just a current feeling as it’s Saturday and we are now less then three days from the big showdown on Tuesday night and a week from several more showdowns. (and then I get to vote in Virginia on the tenth but it appears it won’t matter anymore).

The most noticeable thing about each of the 7 states (Oklahoma, Missouri, Delaware, South Carolina, North Dakota, Arizona, and New Mexico), is the large amount of undecideds. What’s noticeable is I fully believe these are combination of Gephardt & Dean people in each of these states; in Missouri, it’s all Gephardt people and everywhere else, it’s mostly Dean people but I am imagining tons of Dean people are now in the un-decided column after his meltdowns and losses and what this say to me in the end is that 90% of these votes will now go to John Kerry.

Maybe the problem is the media, I don’t know. And while I cry with glee over Dean’s falling numbers, the media has so declared Kerry the run away leader, that the media has also destroyed my man Edwards. If you look at South Carolina, Edwards and Kerry are now virtually tied and there’s enough undecideds that I won’t be surprised at all if Kerry swoops in & steals the state from Edwards, while stealing Oklahoma from Clark, again thanks to the undecideds.

As of today, my official prediction is that Kerry wins 5 of 7 Tuesday night: Delaware (bye bye Jomentum Lieberman officially), Oklahoma (bye bye Wesley Clark, rank has been pulled), Arizona, North Dakota, & Missouri (his easiest win of the night). That leaves 2 states: New Mexico, which I stand by my prediction of Dean there (trust me, those people are left wing freaks there), & South Carolina which I say Edwards will squeak out and barely hold off Kerry.

Unfortunately, I don’t see how 1 state is enough for either Dean or Edwards. Kerry winning 5 of 7 and almost winning 2 others, is such dominance that it should give him a fairly easy sweep in other places.

It’s become clear that the #1 issue people have is BEATING BUSH. Clearly, everyon is voting for Kerry (as they all might have for Dean a month ago) because people only care about backing the front runner. That’s what it amounts to. This is not a lovefest for Kerry, it’s not (unfortunately) a hatefest for Dean, it’s a hatefest for Bush. So many people wanna see Shrub go down, that Kerry is winning a war of attrition. It would have been Dean had not been for the meltdowns and momentum or if that Republican war buddy of Kerry nevers shows up on stage the same week Dean yells at a sweet old man asking him to act “nicer”.

I know I am pretty much alone when I say my venom is much more directed at Dean then at Bush; so be it, it’s what I feel. But these numbers, the way Kerry is polling say to me that I think (with the right VP choice) may sneak out a win in November. I am starting to actually believe Kerry will be (not that I am thrilled with this thought) the next President because there appears to be this anti-vote Bush that is bigger then any ONE Democrat or independent or even a few Republicans.

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One response to “My Thoughts on John Kerry’s current position and why he may actually win in November

  1. I know you have strong hawkish views (it pretty much defines this site, plus the tidbits of Roy Moore fun, generally the reason I come here) but there are more intelligent ways to be a hawk than what the Bush administration has wrought. The reason many of us were uncomfortable with what happened even before Iraq turned into a morass had to do with the incompetence of the run-up followed by the raging incompetence of the aftermath.

    Having said that, recall that candidates can only generalize on their criticism in the best of circumstances. Kerry doesn’t excite me personally, but he’s preferable to Bush (and I feel more comfortable that he’ll be able to manage his team than Bush.)

    Just my two cents.

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